{"id":339,"date":"2026-09-18T00:05:23","date_gmt":"2026-09-18T00:05:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.luisiglesias.co\/?p=339"},"modified":"2026-09-18T00:05:24","modified_gmt":"2026-09-18T00:05:24","slug":"were-leaning-harder-than-ever-on-gas-and-coal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.luisiglesias.co\/?p=339&lang=en","title":{"rendered":"We’re leaning harder than ever on gas and coal"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In April I wrote for this same blog<\/a> that El Ni\u00f1o wasn’t just a climate problem, but an energy, economic, and communications problem too, and that it would hit at the worst possible moment. This month’s numbers confirm that warning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

XM’s report this week shows reservoirs closed August at 79.36%, with water inflows below the historical average for four straight months. That reads like a drought story, but the number that actually matters is different: how the system is responding to that drought.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In August, coal-fired generation rose 6.2% compared to July, domestic gas rose 13.72%, and imported gas, the most expensive of the three, jumped 28.67% in a single month. Imported gas now accounts for 34% of the country’s total supply, with Promigas projecting it will reach 40% before the year is out. And the country’s proven gas reserves are enough for just 4.9 years at the current rate of consumption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Media outlets and agencies report these numbers separately, as if they were unrelated stories: one about weather, one about prices, one about reserves. But it’s the same story told in three pieces. The system lost its own generation margin exactly when it needed it most, and it’s making up the difference with the most expensive, least reliable option available.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There’s even an example of that fragmentation inside XM’s own report. The August 2025 report compared reservoir levels against the reference threshold set by CREG, the minimum safety margin that keeps the country from having to ration power. This year’s report doesn’t mention it. We don’t know whether we’re currently above or below that margin, in the very year we most need to know. When every department reports its own slice without looking at the whole picture, comparisons like that simply fall through the cracks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Solar power, meanwhile, has actually grown: 66% in a year. But it still accounts for just 8.3% of total generation, compared to the 28.77% that coal and gas together make up today. That’s real progress, and it’s also proof that no isolated gain can offset a system that lost ground on multiple fronts at once, something I’ve written about before regarding the false choice between gas and renewables.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What we’re seeing isn’t the energy transition failing because we’re burning more coal and gas. It’s proof that the transition was designed as a race to replace fossil fuels, when from the start it should have been a marathon of coexistence with gas and coal. That incomplete design is exactly what’s leaving us with no margin today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And that margin is only going to keep shrinking. IDEAM has already confirmed that El Ni\u00f1o is active, with an 81% probability of reaching \u00abvery strong\u00bb intensity between October and December, potentially one of the strongest events since 1950, persisting through the first quarter of 2027. Today these numbers read like separate headlines. Add them up, and in a few months they’ll weigh like a single crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This quiet shift, from water to more expensive fuels, doesn’t stay in a technical report. It ends up on the bill every household and every industry pays, and in the accounts the government has to balance. When a cost increase gets explained month by month, disconnected from its underlying cause, the bill lands on people as a surprise instead of as the expected consequence of something that had been building for months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the end, that’s as much a communications problem as an energy one. The strategy, whether deliberate or born of ignorance, isn’t to hide the numbers so the country prepares only halfway. It’s to tell them one at a time.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In April I wrote for this same blog that El Ni\u00f1o wasn’t just a climate problem, but an energy, economic, and communications problem too, and that it would hit at the worst possible moment. This month’s numbers confirm that warning. XM’s report this week shows reservoirs closed August at 79.36%, with water inflows below the … <\/p>\n

Continuar leyendo \u00abWe’re leaning harder than ever on gas and coal\u00bb<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-339","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nWe're leaning harder than ever on gas and coal - Luis Iglesias Monsalve<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.luisiglesias.co\/?p=339&lang=en\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"We're leaning harder than ever on gas and coal - Luis Iglesias Monsalve\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In April I wrote for this same blog that El Ni\u00f1o wasn’t just a climate problem, but an energy, economic, and communications problem too, and that it would hit at the worst possible moment. 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