Colombia is bracing for El Ni\u00f1o as if it were merely a weather pattern. It isn’t\u2014at least not entirely. It is, above all, an energy and economic crisis arriving at the worst possible moment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The National Government has warned of a 90% probability that El Ni\u00f1o will hit the country by September 2026. This news has been framed as exactly what it appears to be: a climate alert. Acting Minister Irene V\u00e9lez spoke of droughts, rising temperatures, forest fires, and water stress. While all of that is true, it is an incomplete picture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a country like Colombia, where roughly 70% of electricity depends on water, El Ni\u00f1o is not just an environmental event. It is primarily an energy signal\u2014and even more so, an economic one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Every El Ni\u00f1o cycle depletes reservoir levels, limits hydroelectric capacity, and forces the system to rely on thermal power plants, which are significantly more expensive. This silent shift\u2014from water to fossil fuels\u2014doesn’t just change how energy is produced; it changes how much it costs. Inevitably, that cost is passed on to households, businesses, and the State itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Furthermore, there is an aggravating factor: the country does not have the same energy safety net it had a decade ago. The decline in local production has forced a reliance on Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) at volatile international prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The disparity is staggering. According to figures from the Mercantile Exchange of Colombia, gas prices jumped from an average of US$4.6<\/strong> per million BTU in 2022 to nearly US$10<\/strong> in 2024. Meanwhile, imported gas has fluctuated between US$14.6<\/strong> and US$18.3<\/strong> per million BTU. Essentially, at the exact moment the system requires thermal backup, that backup is not only more expensive but also more dependent on external markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n To make matters worse, the country is witnessing a significant downturn in its mining sector. Coal production\u2014one of Colombia’s primary exports\u2014has dropped substantially amid dwindling investment, higher tax burdens, and regulatory uncertainty. In 2025, the sector recorded its worst performance in two decades, seeing a sharp decline in both investment and exports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is not an isolated statistic. It is part of a larger equation: Colombia is losing its capacity to generate income from energy resources just as its energy system becomes more costly to maintain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Yet, the full story isn’t being told. El Ni\u00f1o is communicated as a climate event. Imported gas is debated as a technicality. The decline of mining is treated as niche industry news. We need to connect the dots, because when risks are communicated in fragments, the country is only half-prepared.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The real danger isn’t just that El Ni\u00f1o is coming. The danger is that it arrives in a country that hasn’t fully grasped or explained the sheer magnitude of the energy crisis it faces.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Colombia is bracing for El Ni\u00f1o as if it were merely a weather pattern. It isn’t\u2014at least not entirely. It is, above all, an energy and economic crisis arriving at the worst possible moment. The National Government has warned of a 90% probability that El Ni\u00f1o will hit the country by September 2026. This news … <\/p>\n